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Wednesday, June 13, 2012

OBAMA SAID TO BE LOSING BLACK SUPPORT…DOUBTFUL...

Rumor has it that Barry "Almighty" might be beginning to have a black voter problem. Now while I find this suggestion absolutely ridiculous, there is a recent survey out by the Democrat firm Public Policy Polling showing that Barry is in fact losing black support in North Carolina. The poll found Mitt Romney winning 20 percent of North Carolina's black vote to Barry's 76 percent. While obviously still a Barry landslide, looking back he beat John McCain by 95 percent to 5 percent among these voters in 2008. In PPP's May poll, Barry was beating Romney 87 percent to 11 percent. So I honestly don't think that Barry really has all that much to worry about in this regard. Blacks vote for blacks, end of story.

Barry's African-American approval rating in North Carolina has also been taking a relative beating, dropping from 86 percent to 77 percent while Romney's favorability has doubled from 9 percent to 18 percent. A possible explanation is Barry's recent changing of his position regarding same-sex marriage, which the state's black voters oppose by a wide margin but Barry has since announced he now fully supports. But when push comes to shove, I fully expect blacks to have some sort of epiphany before November that would have them deciding that they really don't have that big of a problem with gay marriage after all. That if it's ok with their guy Barry, then, by golly, it's ok with them too.

There are a couple of potential problems with this poll. First of all, the sample size is such that PPP polling analyst Jim Williams told Business Insider it could be nothing more than "statistical noise." There were only 200 blacks that were polled. I can think of other polls with small minority sample sizes that have reported disproportionately large minority support for GOP candidates that, in the end, never quite materialized. Secondly, this slide in black support has yet to be corroborated by any other state or national poll. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza pushes back pretty hard against drawing any conclusions from this recent poll, going so far as to prove the point using charts and everything.

That said, it wouldn't take much of a dip among black voters to hurt Barry. If black turnout is closer to the 11 percent of the electorate it was in 2004 than the 13 percent it was in 2008, or if black support for the Democrat ticket is closer to 85 percent than 95 percent, it 'could' make a big difference. Personally speaking, I think it very safe to assume that come Election Day, blacks will once again be voting for Barry in what will most assuredly be massive numbers. Because, you see, he has that one quality that they hold most dear. He's black, and that's really all that matters to these people. And yet if I vote for someone for no other reason that he or she is white well then I'm termed as being racist.

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