Not that long ago old stretch Nancy Pelosi had some pretty lofty aspirations. And in her effort to once again become Speaker she has spent much of the past two years shooting off her big fat mouth about it was that the Democrats had a great shot at reclaiming the House and returning the speaker’s gavel back into her hands. But, alas, it was simply not to be, which for the rest of us is something to celebrate. Her drive to recapture the majority for Democrats is on the verge of a complete collapse. Democrats are now expected to pick up five seats at best, a fraction of the 25 they need. On the eve of the election, some party officials are privately worried that Democrats might even lose ground and drop one or two seats to the GOP.
Such an event would mark an epic failure for a party about whom it has been said has a legitimate shot at keeping the presidency as well as the Senate on Tuesday. The inability of House Democrats to pick off a good number of seats from, what has been called, one of the most unpopular House majorities in modern history will cause a lot of soul-searching in the party come Wednesday. Unpopular with whom exactly, Democrats? I would argue that that assessment is somewhat faulty. Because from the perspective of those who made that current Republican majority possible, the slamming on of the brakes regarding Barry's attempt to drag us even farther left was the whole purpose behind creating that majority in the first place.
I suppose it remains a possibility that Barry may yet win reelection, but I'm hoping that too does not happen. Having said that, I think there’s little question that he has had nowhere near the same kind of top-of-the-ticket pull that he demonstrated four short years ago. Unlike in 2008, Barry was essentially an unknown entity and was able to put up some national numbers that helped lift up Democratic congressional candidates across the map. This time around, however, Barry seems to have had far less of an impact, mostly because of his policies. And for the Democrats in conservative districts especially in the South and Rust Belt, Barry’s presence on the ballot has seemed to have been more hurt than help.
It's that dynamic, perhaps more than any other, that Democrats say, kept them from stirring up the kind of wave conditions they needed to stage a House takeover this year. Races that would have drifted in the Democrats’ direction four years ago, these days require far more of a push. "There was a wave that was supporting us in many different ways in 2008, and obviously this was a very different election," said Paul Maslin, a Democratic pollster. Barry’s poor first debate performance also caused a bit of a downdraft for vulnerable House Democrats. Just days prior to the debate, Democrats held a 48 percent to 45 percent lead over Republicans. Now, Republicans are holding a small lead in generic ballot polls.
For a party in the minority, Democrats didn’t perform poorly on the fundraising front, in fact, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee outraised the National Republican Congressional Committee $151 million to $135 million over the course of the election. Much of the success was owed to Pelosi, known as a legendary fundraiser who launched a vigorous nationwide cash dash in hopes of avenging a 2010 election that ended up being a painful referendum on her piss-poor speakership. But fortunately for the country, that didn’t translate into the Democrats having more money to spend. Because between July 1 and Oct. 31, the NRCC and allied outside groups outspent their Democratic counterparts $168 million to $131 million.
After Mitt Romney picked Paul Ryan as his No. 2 in August, Democrats were simply salivating, with DCCC Chairman Steve Israel who, perhaps a little too eager to count his chickens before that hatched, went so far as to dub the Wisconsin congressman a "majority maker." The argument from Democrats: Ryan’s controversial plan to rewrite Medicare would scare seniors, who would rush to the polls to pull the lever against Republicans. It’s a bet that Democrats were willing to stake their hopes on: Sixty-four of the 123 TV ads the DCCC ran between Aug. 16 and Oct. 29 focused on Medicare. Nearly three months after the Ryan pick was made, it’s clear that these attacks never really took hold.
Also, from the moment the 2012 campaign began, the map was pretty much stacked against the Democrats. And in what was essentially made possible by the Democrats themselves during the first two years of Barry's presidency, sweeping Republican statehouse gains in the midterms allowed the GOP to dominate the once-in-a-decade redistricting process. Republicans wielded their map-drawing power in 213 of the House’s 435 seats, with Democrats only controlling 44 districts. That wide-ranging power allowed Republicans to strengthen districts for their majority. When the redistricting dust finally settled, 109 Republican seats were made safer, compared with only 67 Democratic seats.
And oddly enough, when Democrats did control the map, they didn’t always use it to their advantage. Some party strategists, for example, are currently none too happy with Democrat New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo for not signing off on a plan that would have ensured greater gains in the state. Party operatives now say they will be lucky if they break even in the Empire State come Tuesday's election. Republicans also used line-drawing to weaken Democrats. One hundred and nine Democrats, including Georgia Rep. John Barrow and North Carolina Rep. Larry Kissell, found themselves in more competitive seats, compared with 96 Republicans. So like I said, The Democrats made the present scenario possible.
Throughout 2011, and into the opening months of 2012, Democrats watched as 27 incumbents announced that they were finally calling it quits. The makeup of the retirees was a bit more concerning in that many of them were from conservative districts that Barry "Almighty" would almost certainly lose. Democrats now expect at least five of these vacated seats to turn Republican. Particularly frustrating to those poor Democrats was North Carolina Rep. Heath Shuler’s announcement in February that he wouldn’t seek reelection, an unusually late departure that left the party with little time to defend his seat. Republicans are favored to win the western North Carolina seat.
But if there’s one dynamic that haunts Democratic strategists, it’s again, apparently, one of their own making and it's that they failed to put more seats in play. Democrats essentially ceded the South and only succeeded in competing in a smattering of seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. In other words, the party simply chose to give up on a pretty big swath of the country. While Democrats are expected to notch wins in California and Illinois, I'm happy to say that it won’t come close to erasing the 25-seat gap separating the parties. Democrats acknowledge that if they want to regain the majority, they’re going to have to find a way to play in more conservative districts.
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