It's a philosophy that has served me well in my 50+ years on this planet, especially when it comes to anything that has as its source anyone in the media. Especially if they're speaking about any Republican, conservative or anyone even remotely associated with the Tea Party. And it is rule of thumb that I use when I read how it is that the GOP is now supposed to be poised to put the Senate in the win column come 2012. Supposedly this notion comes after Republicans now having secured its best starting position in decades as a result of state and national wins last year, or so says University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato. But, he adds, there is also, apparently, some bad news for Republicans in that historical trends suggest the worst possible nightmare scenario that Barry "Almighty" will end up winning re-election. “It’s early, but I think the Republicans have a very good chance to take back the Senate in 2012 and if by some chance they miss it by a seat or so they are almost certain to take it in 2014,” he says. Look, I'm sure Mr. Sabato is a pretty smart guy, but after watching the Republicans over the years going about stepping on themselves more times than I care to count, I'm not gonna be holding my breath here. And if their performance over the next 21 months demonstrates the lack of being willing to deliver on what was promised last year, then what these experts like Mr. Sabato, are presently predicting as being what "might" happen, won't mean squat!
Like I said, Mr. Sabato may be a well known political guru, but the incalculable number of variables that come into play when trying to accurately predict an election outcome that is still a ways down the road is difficult if not impossible. Mr. Sabato does have a new book out which is entitled, “Pendulum Swing,” and in it he chronicles what was the 2010 GOP wave. He makes the statement that Democrats are way behind in the next two election cycles because of the fact that they have almost twice as many seats up for re-election as do the Republicans. And with “more vulnerable Democrats” holding many of those seats. That opinion was reinforced on Wednesday when one of those vulnerable Senators, Jim Webb of Virginia, announced he will not be running for re-election. Mr. Sabato has also put other Senators on the endangered list, those being Jon Tester, D-Mont.; Claire McCaskill, D-Mo.; and Bill Nelson, D-Fla. But with Nelson here in Florida the last poll I saw showed that the only guy that was capable of beating him was Jeb Bush. Unfortunately, Nelson could easily beat any of those seen as being the regular GOP players. And last I heard, Jeb wasn't interested in running. There are also a few who are endangered on the Republican side with Mr. Sabato naming, Senators Scott Brown, RINO-Mass., and John Ensign, R-Nev., who now look as being most likely to lose their seats. Mr. Sabato also mentioned that Senator Richard Lugar, R-Ind. may find himself retired by a Tea Party challenge, but that his seat remains in the safe column for Republicans.
Speaking of Lugar, “It’s possible he could lose the primary though he has a lot of strengths,” Sabato said. “The reason I didn’t mention him is because regardless of which Republican wins the nomination the Republicans are going to keep that seat.” Both Mr. Sabato and his online newsletter, “Sabato’s Chrystal Ball,” have a well-earned reputation for accuracy, scoring in the high 90s in predictions. The founder and director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics said that, historically, presidents who have sought another term have won by a margin of about 2.5 to 1. However though, I think it worth mentioning that, for whatever it's worth, "BJ" Clinton was the first Democrat president since FDR who was able to get himself reelected since FDR and Barry ain't no "BJ." And Clinton never received more than 50 percent of the vote. However, Mr. Sabato does say, “The odds start out with Obama,” he said. “But of course, almost everything depends on first, the state of the economy and nobody knows what that’s going to be in two years and, second, what former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld might call the unknown unknowns. What are the shocks that could occur domestically, what are the shocks that could occur internationally that would change the picture not just economically but also socially and politically.”
Former GOP Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who is currently the front-runner for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, is someone that Mr. Sabato calls the “weakest front-runner in modern times,” and on point I suppose I would have to agree. He has also characterized former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as being someone who could win the nomination but would be “one of the weaker candidates in the fall,” and also said that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich carries too much baggage from the 1990s to be a successful general election candidate. Mr. Sabato has predicted a long and volatile nominating process for the Republicans but did say that one thing that could possibly help in the general election would be to put a Hispanic on the ticket as a vice presidential candidate. He said such a move could deliver as much as 40 percent of the Hispanic vote to the GOP, noting that the Republican ticket has only been getting 30 percent of that vote. What we are going to need is a strong viable candidate to top the ticket, not someone like McCain or Dole. If someone of that caliber becomes our candidate, we're toast and will be subjected to yet another four years of this Obamanation of a presidency.
Even with all that being said, Mr. Sabato could not overstate the significance of the 2010 victory. The win, with it coming in a census year, stretches its influence for a decade because of how it effects redistricting. “This is a very significant development for the Republicans,” he said. “They’ve never been in a better position in any redistricting year after any census in this period of time. So, I expect the Republicans to pick up not just members in the House of Representatives they’re going to pick up a lot of state legislators. What people missed in the 2010 election is that Republicans gained more state legislative seats than they’ve had in any time since 1928. They gained 700 state legislative positions in the 50 states and that is really very significant.” Significant or not, I just don't think it's wise to beginning any possible chickens before they've hatched. If there is one thing that is certain, it is that the actions of the American electorate can be very difficult to predict. And as much as we would like to think to the contrary, the state controlled media does still wield considerable influence over the weak-minded and the ill informed. It was the "only" reason that Barry won in 2008.
The bottom-line here is that we must allow ourselves to be lulled into some false sense of security. We must not forget that everything that happened in November is now something that has officially happened in the past. It's now a piece of history and does absolutely nothing when trying to predict what will happen in November 2012 or as far out as 2014. I'm sure we can all remember how it was said about the Republican Party becoming essentially extinct after the 2008 elections. However, we now see that that claim was more than just a little premature. If that tells us anything it is that one election does not a trend establish.
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