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Friday, January 28, 2011

THE CONTINUING SAGA, THE SAD STATE OF OUR UNION


Many have called our president inept or naïve when describing both his job performance and his apparent political priorities regarding his addressing of certain issues both at here at home and as well as abroad. Now suppose, just for a minute though, that there is something much more sinister at work here, even insidious regarding all that has been going on over the course of the last 2 years. And suppose it's been we the people who have at best been naïve, and at worst far too trusting of this man who, as our elected leader, is supposed to have our best interests at heart. Now we could give him the benefit of the doubt in that he could be genuinely concerned and is trying to do those things that he feels will work best to encourage economic growth and to improve the quality of the lives of all Americans. But benefit of the doubt only goes so far and I'm afraid I'm one of the more cynical ones regarding just what our president is so busy trying to accomplish and why. And rather than being unfortunate results from well intentioned policies being put in place, I would argue that all that has occurred has been what was intended to occur. That the policies that have been thus far put into place were specifically designed to bring about exactly the calamity that has not been lessened but made worse and a direct result of those policies. I think it very safe to say the Barry “Almighty” can be considered as being the architect of our current economic situation.



In the area of employment, once again more Americans than were forecast filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments last week, indicating it will take some a significant amount of time for the labor market to mend. I'm always finding myself somewhat baffled by the fact that our supposed experts are always caught by surprise. Everything is always unexpected, maybe these self-professed experts should just give up trying to forecast such things. I mean, their ability, or inability, to do so ranks right up there with those folks who try to predict the number of hurricanes we're supposed to have every year and continue to miss the mark rather badly. So it was that applications for jobless benefits increased by 51,000 to 454,000 in the week that ended on January 22, once again apparently, catching our Labor Department completely by surprise. Supposedly, Barry’s cadre of economists had forecast 405,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls rose, while those collecting extended payments fell. Some faceless Labor Department official attempted to justify the latest unexpected rise on the weather conditions, claiming that snow in four southern states in previous weeks had created a backlog of claims that were processed last week. While the economy has improved, or so the claim goes, it hasn’t been enough to reduce an unemployment rate that Federal Reserve policy makers have said on more than one occasion, is too high and which requires pressing ahead with yet another $600 billion stimulus plan. “If claims drift higher, we’re just going to have to wait and see, tread water,” Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York, said. “We’re creating enough jobs to keep the unemployment rate roughly steady and at a pace to keep the economy on track, but it’s not necessarily a picture of rapid improvement.” Estimates in the Bloomberg News survey of 52 economists ranged from 375,000 to 428,000, after the Labor Department initially reported claims fell to 404,000 the prior week.


That previously mentioned faceless Labor Department official very confidently advanced the notion that, yes, it was winter weather in Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, in previous weeks that had kept people from filing jobless claims. The net result from that was supposed to have been that those unemployed Americans ended up filing last week, thus boosting the claims number. “In addition to seasonal volatility, we have this extra effect in the numbers,” the Labor Department official said as the figures were released. "Seasonal volatility," is that the latest lame excuse being used by these clowns in their attempt to disguise the fact that they don't have the slightest idea about what you're doing, or why? The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure, rose to 428,750 from 413,000. The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits increased by 94,000 in the week ended January 15 to roughly 4 million. Supposedly, our stalwart government economists had forecast that the number would increase to 3.87 million. Meanwhile, those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments decreased by about 98,000 to 4.62 million in the week ended January 8. It seems that I remember that Barry said that if we would only trust him unemployment wouldn't go over 8 percent. Well, it would seem that we have seriously screwed up here by being stupid enough to believe what Barry was telling us. The end result is that, according to the gurus at the Fed, unemployment is too high to be consistent in the long run with policy makers’ congressional mandate of full employment, with these clown now repeating the obvious in that progress toward its objectives has been “disappointingly slow.” Geez, no sh*t! The labor market gradually improved at the end of last year, with unemployment falling to 9.4 percent in December from 9.8 percent a month earlier, if you can call that an improvement. That was according to Labor Department figures released January 7.


Another example of Barry's stellar handling of the troubled economy comes to us in the form of our ongoing foreclosure crisis that is continuing to only get worse at a break neck pace. What is seen as being a major contributing factor being continuing high unemployment and lackluster job prospects that is forcing homeowners in an increasing number of U.S. metropolitan areas into dire financial straits. In Seattle, Houston and Chicago, cities that were relatively insulated from foreclosures early on in the housing bust, a growing number of homeowners are falling behind on mortgage payments and finding themselves on the receiving end of foreclosure warnings. Others have already seen their homes repossessed by lenders. All told, foreclosure activity jumped in 149 of the country's 206 largest metropolitan areas last year, foreclosure-listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday. The firm tracks notices for defaults, scheduled home auctions and home repossessions, warnings that can lead up to a home eventually being lost to foreclosure. With the outlook regarding our unemployment situation remaining to look rather grim for the foreseeable future, the foreclosure situation is predicted to only get worse in the coming year. Job loss, rather than time-bomb mortgages resetting to higher payments, has become the main driver behind the rising number of foreclosures. "We've actually had a sea change in what's causing foreclosures, from the overheated home prices and bad loans to a second wave of foreclosures actually caused by unemployment and economic displacement," says Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac.


The Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown metropolitan area in Texas saw its foreclosure rate jump 26 percent from 2009, the largest increase among the top 20 biggest metro areas, the firm said. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, in Washington, ranked second with an increase of nearly 23 percent, while the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta metro area in Georgia was third with a 21 percent bump. In the Chicago-Naperville-Joliet metropolitan area, foreclosure activity rose 16 percent, while home repossessions climbed nearly 20 percent, RealtyTrac said. "As the economy and unemployment improve, you'll see those markets recover fairly quickly, whereas you're still going to have a bit of a hangover in places like California, Florida and Nevada," Sharga said. Those states, and Arizona, remain the country's foreclosure hotbeds, accounting for 19 of the top 20 metropolitan areas with the highest foreclosure rates in 2010. Still, foreclosure activity in many of the metro areas in these states actually declined last year. A big reason for the decline is lenders took steps to delay foreclosure actions in these states as they sought to manage the flow of troubled properties coming onto their books. In the final months of last year, several lenders went further, temporarily halting foreclosure activity to deal with allegations of improper evictions. Most banks have since resumed taking action against borrowers behind in payments, however, and the pace of foreclosures is expected to pick up this year and ultimately outpace 2010 levels. "We believe we're going to see an abnormally high growth of foreclosure activity in the first quarter and we do expect that 2011 will be another record year for foreclosure activity and bank repossessions," Sharga said, adding he projects bank repossessions will rise by at least 20 percent. That's likely to drag down home values further, potentially pushing more homeowners into negative equity, when a borrower owes more on their mortgage than the market value of their home.


And as if you didn't already know it, Social Security is now officially living on borrowed time, and will run at a deficit this year and keep on running in the red until its trust funds are completely exhausted by about 2037. At least that is the opinion of congressional budget experts in bleaker-than-previous estimates. The massive retirement program has been suffering from the effects of the struggling economy for several years. It first went into deficit last year but had been projected to post surpluses for a few more years before permanently slipping into the red in 2016. This year alone, Social Security will pay out $45 billion more in retirement, disability and survivors' benefits than it collects in payroll taxes, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said. That figure nearly triples - to $130 billion - when the new one-year cut in payroll taxes is included. Another piece of good news, I'm being sarcastic here, in yet another sobering estimate, the congressional office said government red ink this year will increase to $1.5 trillion, the most in U.S. history. This is nothing short of pure insanity! This is absolutely embarrassing. The United States of America has now been reduced to the point where we need to beg a Communist country, to assist in covering our debt that has been brought about by our own fiscal irresponsibility. This whole maddening scenario is self-inflicted and I'm wondering if we’re ever going to possess the necessary willpower to dg ourselves out of our present fiscal quagmire.


More than 54 million Americans receive Social Security benefits, averaging $1,076 per month. In the short term, Social Security is suffering from the weak economy that has payroll taxes lagging and applications for benefits rising. In the long term, Social Security will be strained by the growing number of baby boomers retiring and applying for benefits. That little sleigh ride to Hell has already officially begun. The projected Barry created deficits add a sense of urgency to efforts to improve Social Security's finances, an urgency that had been missing up to this point. For much of the past 30 years, the program has run big surpluses, which the government has borrowed to spend on other programs. Now that Social Security is running deficits, the federal government will have to find money elsewhere to help pay for benefits. "So long as Social Security was running surpluses, policymakers could put off the need to fix the program," said Andrew Biggs, a former deputy commissioner at the Social Security Administration who is now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "Now that the system is running deficits, it simply becomes clear that we need to act on Social Security reform.”


Barry said in his State of the Union address Tuesday night that he wanted "a bipartisan solution to strengthen Social Security for future generations." Isn't that what Bush tried to do? And what did he get for his effort? However, Barry “O” has not embraced recommendations from a debt commission he appointed last year including one that would gradually increase the full retirement age, from 67 to 69, over the next 65 years. But Barry did lay down some markers for making Social Security closer to solvent. "We must do it without putting at risk current retirees, the most vulnerable, or people with disabilities, without slashing benefits for future generations and without subjecting Americans' guaranteed retirement income to the whims of the stock market," Barry said. The program has been supported by a 6.2 percent payroll tax, paid by both workers and employers. In December, Congress passed a one-year tax cut for workers, to 4.2 percent. The lost revenue is to be repaid to Social Security from general revenue funds, meaning it will add to the growing national debt.


On the international front any number of ongoing crises have seem to not be worthy of Barry's attention. One of the hottest spots on the globe, Barry seems almost oblivious to what is going on there. Barry repeatedly gives the impression that he is in over his head and his administration is seen as being feckless regarding the present any serious response to what is going on there. And now the administration is once again drawing fire from foreign policy experts for its blatant ambiguity and deservedly so as it goes about the sending of mixed messages regarding the historic wave of unrest sweeping across the Middle East most recently taking place in Egypt. Increasingly, the administration is coming under increasingly intense criticism for first appearing to encourage pro-democracy movements that it now seems very reluctant to embrace. The clash over human rights also appears to be on the verge of triggering a political clash in the United States, as Barry appears to be very conflicted regarding the topic. Republicans remember well the tepid White House response to the crackdown on protesters following fraudulent elections in Iran in 2009. Republicans complained that Barry’s response was too timid. There is much uncertainty over whether stable, Democratic regimes can prevail over the Islamic extremism that is so common in the nations now experiencing unrest. And with uncertainty comes a certain hesitance on the part of Barry, to commit to the taking any sort of definitive action in the region. And such hesitance implies nothing but weakness. Barry weighed in on the uprising in Egypt during a YouTube interview on Thursday. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who has dominated the country for more than three decades, has been very helpful to the United States, Barry said. “My main hope right now is that violence is not the answer in solving these problems in Egypt. So the government has to be careful about not resorting to violence, and the people on the streets have to be careful about not resorting to violence. And I think it is very important that people have mechanisms in order to express legitimate differences.” Ok, just what the Hell does that gibberish supposed to mean?


Then of course we have that resident moron, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs, who has said that the administration believes the Mubarak government is stable, and called Mubarak a “close and important partner.” Foreign policy experts fear the extremist Muslim Brotherhood may take advantage of the crisis and seize power. The unrest in Egypt is just the latest episode of unrest gripping the region. And just another lost opportunity on the part of Barry to exhibit some much needed leadership. In Egypt, tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets of Cairo and other cities, chanting, waving signs and lobbing Molotov cocktails at police. Mubarak has responded with typical clenched fist tactics that has helped him maintain power for three decades. On Tuesday, Mubarak outlawed further public demonstrations. Police reacted with a brutal crackdown, firing tear gas and rubber bullets into the crowd, pummeling protesters with repeated blows from bamboo-cane poles and dragging dissidents away from the safety of the angry crowd. In the clashes, a government building was torched and six were killed. At least 55 protesters and 15 police were injured, according to various reports. More than 850 protesters have been arrested, Egyptian authorities said.


In the past, Barry's willingness to stand firmly with pro-democracy forces has been questionable at best. He seems to be much more comfortable standing with guys like Chavez an Ortega or even the Castro Brothers. I'm sure we all remember his odd response to the Honduras situation not too long ago. Or, when he stated unequivocally in his much-noted June 2009 Cairo speech: “No system of government can or should be imposed by one nation on any other . . . But I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. These are not just American ideas; they are human rights. And that is why we will support them everywhere,” he said. Similarly, in a recent speech in Doha, Qatar, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that regimes in the Middle East were in danger of “sinking into the sand” if they didn’t enact reforms. "Those who cling to the status quo may be able to hold back the full impact of their countries' problems for a little while, but not forever," she said, a warning which seems prescient in the wake of Tunisian events. "If leaders don't offer a positive vision and give young people meaningful ways to contribute, others will fill the vacuum,” she said. But in recent days, the administration has moved carefully, balancing its support for the right to civil protest with support for Middle East stability. And that equivocation has angered activists, including most notably in Egypt.


This is just a brief synopsis of the more glaring issues that reflect the current sad state of our union. Urgent and very bold action to address all of these ongoing issues, plus any number of others, is so desperately needed. There has a heightened sense of urgency that has been created over the course of the last 2 years. And if action, responsible and courageous action, is not taken, and very soon, the end of America as we know it may be much nearer than any of us would like to admit. We can no afford to pussyfoot around by taking actions that will result in doing anything more than kicking the can a little further down the road.

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